It has been a season unlike any other, with the addition of the Gold Coast Suns leading to more bench players and of course, the dreaded bye and multiple-bye weeks.
As some sort of twisted solution to this chaos, those in charge decided to issue us with a few more trades for the year, giving us a grand total of 24 trades for the duration. So, with 8 rounds to go until SC finals, just what is the right number to have left?
Of course, there is no cut and dried rule. Generally it seems that from talk around the water cooler most coaches have somewhere in the vicinity of 10 to 14 trades left at this stage. The trade issue is a double-edged sword – whilst holding on to trades can be a blessing later in the season, at the same time you also need to identify and recruit those rookies and cheaper players who you know are going to get a consistent run, especially with benches playing a bigger role due to byes and the dreaded “general soreness”.
2011, like the seasons before it, has seen a number of these ‘must haves’ – guys like Heppell, Mzungu, Zac Smith, Krakouer, Swallow, Harris, Petrie, Liberatore, Duigan, Puopolo and Hibberd, just to name a few. If you have been trading wisely a lot of those guys have already been moved on, as you have downgraded them and used the extra cash to gain more premium players on field. That, as they say, is the Supercoach game.
Right now though is the key part of the season, where Premiership campaigns can be made or shattered. Holding your nerve now can lead to massive gain later on, and never will this be more evident than this season, with the byes having a huge effect. Generally you are in one of the following situations, and your trading advice alters accordingly.
1. On top, or near the top…cruising nicely.
For those lucky enough to be in this position, whether going for the overall win or just their league wins, hold on to as many trades as you can. Check your fixture and be sure to give yourself the best chance at a top 4 finish, remembering 1st has little advantage over 4th. Only trade long term outs or to grab that must have rookie who strengthens your bench.
2. In the mix to make the eight
Again, have a close look at your upcoming games and your chance of victory, but if necessary, trade hard and strong to gain that advantage. This is particularly true if you have more than 12 trades and a premium player out for more than 3 weeks. There is no point finishing tenth with 8 trades up your sleeve for finals time…useless.
3. Two or three wins out of the eight
Trade, trade, trade! Throw caution to the wind and take a risk – bring in as many form players as you can and try to get on a roll. Trade players down to untried rookies if you must – just get some cash and upgrade NOW.Have a crack!
So, in the end it all comes down to your personal situation. Come finals time those Nth Melbourne, Geelong, Carlton and Essendon players will be burdens that you must unload unless your bench cover is sparkling, so most teams should look to head into round 21 with somewhere between 3 and 6 trades to cover for that scenario.
Easier said than done!